The Sick Man of Major League Baseball

This was by far the Giants’ best series of the season. For once, strong starting pitching combined with timely hits to get Matt Cain his third win, who showed marked improvement from his last time out.

6/4 vs NYM: 5 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR

6/9 @ WSN: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR

Cain’s one Achilles heel has been lack of control, especially with his fastball–walking one too many batters and then serving up the long bomb. Last night, we saw him pitch to contact using a mix of pitches, resulting in a few more hits but three extra strikeouts to strand runners.

It also helps to have a guy like Yabu waiting in the bullpen to clean up the bases via one-pitch double-plays in the seventh inning.

If we thought that Brian Wilson’s previous saves were terrifying, those were nothing compared to last night’s 4-out thriller. Wilson preserved a 1-run lead in the 8th by getting a flyball to end a bases-loaded situation, and then cleaned up the 9th despite a throwing error by Castillo. He’s now in the top 10 among relievers in WPA, with the likes of Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, with a 1.87.

In slightly fresher news, the Giants look to sweep their first 4-game series against the Nationals tonight.

Lineup, courtsey of Mr. Baggarly:

lf Lewis
2b Durham
rf Winn
c Molina
cf Rowand
1b Bowker
3b Aurilia
ss Vizquel
p Cain

Good to see Bochy run Bowker out on the field again. His .248 batting average belies the inordinate number of line drives he’s hit right at people.

Speaking of mashing, Posey goes deep again, adding two insurance runs in the 7th inning on the way to an 11-4 victory over Gillaspie and the Shockers.

Before I address the slider, can we just crown Lincecum king of the universe and be done with it? He’s good. He’s also the first Giants in 15 years to start off a season with an 8-1 record.

All seriousness aside, yesterday’s data probably is not accurate since Gameday blanked on types of pitches in the 5th and 6th innings.

The information that actually showed up supports the same points I’ve noticed in previous posts. Sample sizes have tailed off in Lincecum’s past starts since he has not thrown nearly as many sliders per game as he did against the Cardinals. I can say that no batter has teed off on the slider yet, though Casto managed an infield single.

—

Dirty Sanchez tonight at 4. 15 hits for the Giants again?

The commentators said that the coach for the the Seminoles calls every pitch, which disappoints me because we won’t be able to see how Posey manages his pitchers. No base-stealers yet, but Wichita State seems like a running team, so he’ll probably get a chance to show off his rocket arm.

Bottom 4th, 3-2 Wichita: Home run by Posey on the second pitch he saw, 6th of the post-season.

Top 5th, 3-2 Wichita: Gillapsie grounds out to first. That’s his second groundout of the day. Not exactly confidence inspiring, but we’ll see.

You can tell that Posey is new to catching. It’s not a problem, but he bounces a lot when he sets up before a pitch.

Top 5th, 4-2 Wichita: Before the run scored, Wichita stole 3rd on a slider outside the zone that Posey couldn’t catch properly. After, he blocked another ball in the dirt outside the zone nicely.

Bottom 5th, 5-2 Wichita: With two outs and a runner on second, Wichita decides to intentionally walk Posey.

Top 6th, 5-3 Wichita: Commentators said that Villanueva, FSU’s starter for the game, credits Posey for keeping him focused during games.

Top 6th, 8-3 Wichita: Gillapsie hits a 3-run HR on the first pitch. A home-run is always appreciated, but it seems like he likes swinging at the first pitch.

Posey catches a pitch outside the zone, then whips it to the first baseman in an attempt to nail the runner there. Though the runner was safe, Posey threw it down the line pretty fast from his knees.

Bottom 6th, 9-4 Wichita: The broadcast on ESPN dropped out with Posey down an 0-2 hole. I’m not sure how he hit into an out, but the play involved Gillaspie.

Top 9th, 10-5 Wichita: Posey drops a 3rd strike, but flips it over to first for the out. He’s caught 5 different pitchers today.

Bottom 9th, 10-5 Wichita: Posey strikes out on a pitch way outside with a runner on first. He’s a bum!

Bottom 9th, 10-7 Wichita: With 2 men on and 2 outs and a chance to tie up the game, Posey strikes out swinging. The pitch before, though, was a bit high and should have been ball four, but the ump called strike two. End game.

Tons of pitchers taken, but I don’t mind. Tidrow has a knack for finding talents, most recently Lincecum, especially in the lower rounds.

It’s funny that the Giants only took 1 third-baseman, Daniel Black, so far, given that their minors system is bereft of players in the hot corner. They must have faith in Angel Villalona being capable of handling the position.

#5: C Buster Posey

After initially slamming Buster Posey in a fit of “why didn’t the Giants take Smoak” fury, I’m warming up to to him. He fills one of the gaping holes in the infield, throws in potential for 10-15 home runs, and is inarguably the best catcher in the draft.

What he brings to the table:

• Named to the All-ACC first team in 2007, became the first sophomore finalist for the Johnny Bench Award, first team All American by Collegiate Baseball, named to the President’s List for a 4.0 GPA.
• Currently, he leads the NCAA with .467/.567/.864. There’s something to be said about aluminum bats and small parks, but a .467 average is nothing to sneeze at.
  
• Posey originally played shortstop as a freshman, but he is a fast learner and already displays great defensive potential behind the plate, nailing 40.9% of base stealers in 2007.
• Throwing a low-90′s fastball up to second would explain that percentage. In addition to catching, he’s expected to be FSU’s closer.
• Just in case the Giants find themselves in this type of game again, Posey plays all nine positions.
• This article by Heather Dinich of ESPN closed the deal for me:
  

  Baseball and school, that’s about all I do. That’s about it, but I wouldn’t have it any other way. I enjoy it, I really do.

  If you’re not sold on Buster Posey yet, take a looksee for yourself today 11 AM on ESPN2 when FSU faces Wichita State (home of Conor Gillaspie, how convenient) in the Super Regionals. Game 2 is on Saturday at 9 AM, Game 3 on Sunday at 10 AM.
  

#37: 3B Conor Gillaspie

• 2007 MVP of Cape Cod League, winner of Thurmon Munson Batting Champion Trophy in Cape Cod League (won by Smoak, Derek Jeter, and Lance Berkman previously), named to first team All-Valley and Wichita All-Regional team
• I love this pick. Love it. BA ranked Gillaspie as the 13th pro prospect in the the Cape Cod League and the Giants pick him at 37. Steal!
• Like Bill Mueller, lack of power is the only real knock on Gillaspie, but I think that he has more power than people give him credit for. He hit .345 in Cape Cod with a wooden bat and amassed .673 slugging and 21 XBH, 7 of those home runs.
• Power or no power, this guy flat out hits. He batted over .400 for most of his junior year and has plate discipline. Credit to the Giants for drafting guys with power and patience this year.

• Named to Second Team All-Big 12
• He has raw power, finishing 2007 with a .302 batting average with 25 doubles, 5 triples, and 13 home runs. His swing causes him to pull at times, which could be a problem but at the same time generate XBH.

#117: SS Brandon Crawford

• As a pull hitter, he has power, but he’s lost confidence this year because of a rough Cape Cod season. When he’s on though, he regularly drives balls and has a solid arm in the hole.

#147: Edwin Quirarte

• Quirarte currently serves as the Matadors’ closer. Other than that I don’t know too much about him. His stats aren’t stellar for a closer, 4.50 ERA in 2006 and 6.57 in 2007.

#177: Eric Surkamp

• His sophomore season sounds a bit like Matt Cain’s season last year:
  

  Had an outstanding, consistent season despite winning just four games … Had seven no-decisions for the second consecutive season … Left three of his no-decisions with the lead, three with the score tied, and one trailing by one run … Allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of 16 appearances

• He throws a fastball in the mid to high-80′s but he gets guys out, as shown by his 2.71 ERA.

Overall, I’m very happy with the draft so far. The Giants have broken with tradition and drafted 6 collegiate players, 4 of them position players. Brian Sabean hinted yesterday that Posey would be put on the fast track to the majors and with the big club by 2010:

(Posey) is on the fast track and Bengie’s clock is winding down,” Sabean said. “It’s really up to him how soon he wants to get going and how soon he can get here.

As I’m typing, the Giants have drafted several new players, including 6 pitchers. I’m totally in favor of this new philosophy, and let’s hope the Giants get these guys signed.

I think Peter Gammons just said that Smoak is fully ambidextrous, except with his feet. Does that make him ambipedrous?

(12:38 PM) Oakland takes Jemile Weeks. Another overdraft, in my opinion.

(12:53 PM) The Dodgers take Ethan Martin. Selig looks like he doesn’t want to be at the Milk House (heh) at all.

(1:26 PM) Andrew Baggarly with an article about Buster Posey.

(1:48 PM) 12 picks until the Giants select again. In the meantime, Posey now has his own Wikipedia page. If that doesn’t say big-time, I don’t know what does.

(1:59 PM) While we’re waiting, I think it’s time grace Posey with a nickname. Madison Bumgarner received MadBum from the McCoven within minutes of being drafted, so it’s only fair if Posey gets the same treatment.

Starting off with the lame and obvious sobriquets:

• Buster “Ring Around the Rosy, A Pocketful of” Posey
• Busta Pose

And, that’s all I got.

(2:39 PM) With the 37th pick, the Giants take Conor Gillapsie, a 3B out of Wichita State. Solid pick. From MLB DraftTracker:

He’s a terrific hitter and has been over .400 for most of the year. His lack of power makes it hard to profile him anywhere other than a Bill Mueller-type third baseman. There are worse things to be, of course, and a team that values what Gillapsie can do will surely take him

From Goldstein and Bryan Smith, respectively:

A lot of people saw this as a first-round bat, but at the same time, there might be money problems. Giants looks to be ready to do the right thing in the draft.

San Francisco takes another player in Gillaspie in the sandwich round that’s going to hit for a good average and just a little power. I like Gillaspie quite a bit, though, and I think he’s really going to hit. The Giants really have improved their future today with Gillaspie and Posey.

(5:40 PM) Jim Barr has done a heck of a job with the draft so far. 4 rounds, 4 solid position players.

Follow live at MLB.com. It’s free!

(11:10 AM) Word is that the Devil Rays will pick Tim Beckham.

(11:17 AM) MLB.com predicts that the Giants will take Buster Posey, with Justin Smoak falling to 9 and the Washington Nationals. Come on, Giants, I want me some Smoak on the Water two years from now.

(11:23 AM) It’s draft time!

(11:26 AM) From BA:

We feel good about our first four picks on the last Mock Draft: Beckham, then Pedro Alvarez to the Pirates, Eric Hosmer to the Royals and Brian Matusz to the Orioles. The problem with the mock draft is the Giants. They could go Justin Smoak, but BA’s Matt Blood reports from Orlando that he’s getting Buster Posey vibes at five.

(11:31 AM) BP reports that Posey may drop because of money demands. 12 million demands to be exact. Bluff?

(11:32 AM) The Tampa Bay Rays are on the clock.

(11:37 AM) The modern miracle of internet just failed me. Thanks a lot MLB.com. In any case, the Rays select Tim Beckham.

Now the Giants can’t pick a promising high-school hitter and mess him up in their system. There’s still Hosmer, though.

(11:42 AM) Pedro Alvarez is heading off to Pittsburgh. If Smoak wasn’t available at 5, then I was hoping that Alvarez would drop. Oh well. Now this is where things get interesting. 1-2 were foregone conclusions, but the rest of the picks are up in the air.

(11:46 AM) Don’t take Smoak, Royals. Don’t take Smoak.

YES! Smoak is still on the board; Kansas takes Hosmer. Good pick. He has a real nice swing.

(11:50 AM) Choices: Smoak, Posey, G. Beckham.

(11:53 AM) The Giants are on the clock, the Orioles took Matusz. Smoak Smoak Smoak.

(11:59 AM) DAMMIT! Buster Posey.

(12:01 PM) Great. The Giants swap 30-40 home runs a year for maybe 10, “up the middle” defense, and $12 million draining out the their pocket.

(12:05 PM) What Goldstein says:

5. Giants take Buster Posey. If you heard Bud make the announcement, now you know why he goes by Buster. This is a fantastic pick at five for the Giants. Really great find at five, and I’ll bet anything right now that he doesn’t get $12 million from SF.

Because he’ll get $11.9 million.

(12:08 PM) Okay, I’ll stop being cynical now. It’s not Posey’s fault that the Giants can’t address their needs properly. *coughcoughreadymadepoweratfirstcoughcough* Oops.

In all seriousness, Posey is a good pick. He has tremendous defensive potential and his power is decent. Pablo Sandoval will have a friend in A now.

Smoak is falling farther than I thought he would. The Reds and White Sox passed over him for Alonso and G. Beckham, respectively. Will Smoak fall to 37, perhaps?

(12:20 PM) Poor Smoak. I wonder why he’s still sliding.

(12:22 PM) Why is it that all the draftee interviews are less-than-scintillating? You would think that they feel excited to be drafted by a major league team.

(12:25 PM) I’m going to throw something if the A’s luck into Smoak (12). Something’s going to burn if he falls into the Dodgers’ laps (15). Oh geez, the Astros took Jason Castro. Overdraft.

Time for a quick look around the blogosphere (yes, I said “blogosphere”) for pre-draft day rumblings:

• BA has the Giants picking Justin Smoak. A first baseman who can hit for power and who can easily slide into the majors by 2010? Yes, please.
• Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com goes with Buster Posey, who can hit for a little power but who is heralded for game-calling.
• BP and Anthony Goldstein projects Gordon Beckham, one of the two Beckham shortstops who can fill the Giants’ gaping organizational holes at the position.
• RealGM sticks to the Giants’ philosophy of stacking young arms and predicts Gerrit Cole at #5.
• The Giants have their eye on Kyle Skipworth, a high-school catcher, according to TSN.
• John Barr, the Giants’ new scouting director, supposedly has Hosmer at the top of the draft board, followed by T. Beckham and Smoak.
• The Front-Row’s brother blog hits big-time with their first Q & A with Justin Weyman. The former Penn State radio voice sheds some insight on several players who could don a Giants cap tomorrow.
• With all this attention given to the first round picks, you may start to wonder, what about the supplemental picks? Martin at OGC answers exactly that.
• For all the prognosticating and philosophying, only one source predicted 4 out of the first 30 picks correctly for last year’s draft (I’m not counting David Price, who was the sure-fire #1 pick). The winner: John Sickels.